12 Oct to 16 Oct

2 holidays in 2 major countries today, expect low trading volume today...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay6rLAG9Nywo

adding to signs the U.S. may trail other countries in emerging from recession.

Australia’s dollar traded near its highest since August 2008 versus the greenback as traders increased bets the central bank will raise interest rates.

Japanese investors are still looking to put some funds abroad,” said Norifumi Yoshida, vice president of the trading section at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “This is likely to be negative for the yen.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Oct. 8 said the central bank will be prepared to tighten monetary policy when the outlook for the economy “has improved sufficiently.”

The Fed last month reiterated its pledge to keep the benchmark lending rate low “for an extended period.”

“While there’s a general feeling that we’re in a better market today than we were six or nine months ago, there’s still just a huge overhang from unemployment,” Chief Financial Officer Blake Jorgensen said by telephone on Oct. 8. “It’s going to be a slow recovery in 2010.”

USD - ?

JPY - DOWN
>>EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDJPY should all go up

EUR - UP/SIDEWAYS
(might be untradable unless intention of scalping)

GBP - ?

some comment I received frm my weekly subscription:

Tuesday 12th, October 2009
Not a lot to report, Dow up again, but having trouble breaking above 10,000.
Gold gone crazy during the week, but most commodities pulled back a bit on Friday.
This inevitable correction we are supposed to have is still holding off and the market wants to charge ahead [beware the charging market ,some might say].
Every upward move has a downward move, but when is the big question.

by Les Szancer & Team


some of the main events for this week:
Wed (14/10)
GBP Jobless Claim at 8.30 am GMT
USD Advance Retail Sales at 12.30 pm GMT
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18.00 pm GMT

Dollar getting lower and lower
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOTmsmEQpY6A

Feeling bad for Dollar. haha.

GBP doing a big dip currently of about a hundred points. Makes me ponder...

At the end of this recession, how would the world be like?

US and UK, won't be as "formidable" as before anymore...

China taking over... Euro being the main currency... India catching up...

It's a whole new world alright.
(Sing with Aladdin theme)

A whole new world
A new fantastic point of view
No one to tell us no
Or where to go
Or say we're only dreaming

A whole new world
A dazzling place I never knew
But when I'm way up here
It's crystal clear
That now I'm in a whole new world with you
Now I'm in a whole new world with you

I was just wonder about the same thing...
what happened to Pound...
any news u heard?

You mean for now? I think it's just the londoners playing TA. For one, I notice rare posts on bloomberg for UK news as compared to US. Looking for other sources...

But I think there aren't any news, just purely TA based downtrend to continue what happened last week.

Hate to say this but I woke up early today just to long against GU... now it slumped downwards... lost money...

Proves my point:

“The diversification out of the dollar will accelerate,” said Fabrizio Fiorini, a money manager who helps oversee $12 billion at Aletti Gestielle SGR SpA in Milan. “People are buying the euro not because they want that currency, but because they want to get rid of the dollar. In the long run, the U.S. will not be the same powerful country that it once was.”

TREND NOW: SELL DOLLAR FOR EVERYTHING ELSE.

JPY & EUR DOESN'T WANT DOLLAR DOWN BECAUSE THEY DEPEND ON DOLLAR.

STEP 2: JPY SELLS EVEN FASTER THAN DOLLAR.

Not too sure what EUR will do. hover I guess.

Power struggle 1:
-People want Yen to strengthen, Japan wants Yen to weaken. Expect ups and downs from JPY

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqeGNDgAw9z0
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJGWjKOQbB2g

Power struggle 2:
-People fear Dollar, selling every dollar they have for other currencies like Euro. European money people wants Dollar to strengthen instead.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aaIrWeN0neZw

Where can we get UK news? I'm trying to look around..

http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/

BBC? http://www.bbc.co.uk/
I thought BBC belong to UK...

could it be ppl are waiting for few important news tmr?
mostly on US
and GBP jobless claim tmr

that's why it's quiet this morning...

Are u the one told me, ppl just buying euro not because they want euro but just to get rid of Dollar?
I forgot ady where I heard about this...

umm... maybe you read the news from bloomberg?

Advice that stocks will fall badly very soon (which is vis-a-vis, equivalent to dollar strengthening back?)

shaz please check if I am wrong about the parity for dollar and stocks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUyoprw1C4NA

Rd wrote:Advice that stocks will fall badly very soon (which is vis-a-vis, equivalent to dollar strengthening back?)

shaz please check if I am wrong about the parity for dollar and stocks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUyoprw1C4NA

I'm not too sure about correlation between stock & dollar...

*** Note: This is just my opinion, pls correct me if I'm wrong ***

Based on past experience, I think for stock we will refer to DowJones or S&P 500 performance...

before yesterday DJIA stuck, cannot surpass 10,000 level (this is kind of psychology level)...
but last night DJIA rally up closed above 10,000 level for first time in long months plus JPMorgan better than expected report fuelled the uptrend movement

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602003&sid=amB5SJIdjHO8

so back to forex, as I know, basically currency can be group as safe currency or risky currency.
You may need to find more on which currency consider as safe and which one consider as risky
dollar & yen used to be known as safe heaven (or consider as safe asset, but I'm not sure now is still true or not)
the most safest/conservative is US govt bond/T-Bill because it's guaranteed by US
and Euro & Pound as risky asset...

when stock market is falling, trader will rush for safe asset
then you will see dollar strengthening most of the time, bond become popular & bond price increasing....
early this year, bond auction is consider important news...
sometime can move the market.
because if demand still strong for bond then logically trader is still in fear, market is not yet recovering
bond auction is every monday & thursday if I'm not mistaken

then when market start recovering, trader will become more and more brave. They start to dump safe asset and play with risky asset
then you'll see dollar slump....

Really interesting information... learnt something today.. haha.

That points why GBP and EUR are increasing like crazy lately...