----EURUSD----

EU appears to be bouncing off the EMA lines yet again..

On H1,

Trending lines prove the 3-5 point bounce theory I've mentioned.

Back to being a EU fanboy recently due to my RCS, here's a long deserved screenshot of EU now...

EU hasn't broke the 50 EMA for months.... looks like a major drop might be in store?

similar story from dailyfx forex stream

http://twitter.com/JoelKruger/statuses/5388295072

3 Nov 18:13:54 EUR/USD: TESTING CRITICAL MEDIUM-TERM SUPPORT BY 50-DAY SMA. A CLOSE BELOW WILL BE VIEWED AS BEARISH.



DailyFX Forex Stream:

3 Nov 21:25:13 WARNING: We do not recommend that traders get sucked into selling USD today which has already posted impressive gains. Risk for reversal.

EU Raises 2010 GDP Forecast as Deficits, Jobless Soar

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=apyKLXr92yhE

What happend to EU on 4th Nov last week... (based on EW)

sorry, wrong link
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/gbp/2009-11-06-2201-British_Pound_Could_See_Breakouts.html

this is the correct one:
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/11/04/EUR/USD-Forex-How-to-Forecast-Market-Moves-Before-They-Occur.aspx

Trend in H1: Up
Trend in D1: Up

Chart Pattern: Ascending Trendline, Ascending Triangle

Expected Direction: Up

I just read this morning, be cautious on Double Top at 1.5050...

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/eur/2009-11-14-0012-Euro_Remains_Below_1_5050__.html

Yup, that supposedly is true, that's why we can see the drop from 12-13 nov...

currently it's coming back up.. not sure is it a retracement back to the 1.5050 level, or a continuation of major trend. It will definitely hover around 1.5050 level.. Maybe have another quick drop down before continuing it's ascent... Can catch a quick triple top!

I just received this newsletter: although it's a bit late....

U.S. Dollar "Flies": A Blip or Start of Something Big?
Bernanke wants to ensure strong dollar; Trichet concurs. What do Elliott wave patterns say?


World stocks in modest pullback as dollar flies
LONDON — World stocks fell modestly Tuesday... while the dollar rallied after the heads of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank attempted to talk the currency up.

That was the opening paragraph of an Associated Press article posted on Tuesday morning (Nov. 17). The U.S. dollar gained strongly on Tuesday; by lunchtime, the EUR/USD (the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro; the most widely traded forex pair) moved lower by some 150 points (or pips).

The central bankers themselves appeared to confirm the news story: The Fed's chairman Bernanke said on Monday they were watching currencies markets to "help ensure that the dollar is strong"; the ECB's Trichet said that Bernanke's statement was "very important."

Apparently, forex traders interpreted both comments as bullish for the dollar... but if you've been watching the EUR/USD's Elliott wave patterns, you didn't have to wait for the morning news to tell you that.

The day before the U.S. dollar took the upper hand, Elliott Wave International's intensive Currency Specialty Service posted the following daily forecast for subscribers:



Update For: Tuesday
Posted On: Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:49:51 GMT
EURUSD Last Price: 1.4974
[Rolling over] Key Levels: 1.5051. If the decline from 1.5051 is impulsive, ending in a failed fifth wave, the rebound from Friday is a deep correction. The proximity to the prior peak a means the risk associated with a bearish view is minimal. A decline below 1.4880 would bolster the bearish outlook...

If you're new to Elliott, here's what that means. Wave patterns subdivide into two major categories: impulses and corrections. Impulses are 5-wave moves that indicate the direction of the larger trend. Corrections are 3-wave affairs that go against the trend. As the chart above shows, the decline in the EUR/USD from the $1.5051 looks impulsive, and the rally off $1.4823 -- corrective. So what should have come next was the resumption of the larger trend -- in this case, down.

And that's exactly what we saw in the 150-pip drop on Tuesday. To find out if this is just a temporary blip or a start of something big for the dollar, read the latest Currency Specialty Service forecasts online now.

4900 test after the major drop from friday.

I thought EU drop since it touched 1.5150 area?

no... USD dropped due to news on NFP on Friday. Every USD pair sunk. but now people are closing their positions... so price is going back

yeah, I saw last Friday EU & GU moving down...
this time I think Dollar & Yen not moving together in same direction...
as u can see last Friday EJ & GJ is moving up...

That, mentioned by bloomberg was that people are now moving their assets to JPY as base currency.

Sell off from USD >> move to JPY >> EJ GJ UP, EU GU down.

I should also mention that, during the news occurence on Friday, the thing I noticed was that UJ was the first one to spike. Right after news. Immediate spike of at least 100+ pips. Then followed by the rest.... Those big traders saw the US economy 'improving', shift to JPY...

The EUR/USD uptrend has officially been dismissed, with candles now on the 50 EMA line on D1...

Await chaos in trading for EUR/USD, and behold the re-rise of the dollar.(?)

Where is EU going now?

EU determined to push down?

Seems like EU is about to repeat what she did during April to June last year(2009).

(D1)
First, cross a 50 EMA,
Second, Breakthrough the 200SMA like a rocket.

Then the trend will return back to the 50 EMA bouncing along it.

Is this how EU will actually work for the long trend this year?

Don't know what I reply to ur email yesterday... maybe I still hv a bit hangover frm my sickness...ha..ha..

If u look back in FA post in 1st week this month, I did mentioned about Adam warning & FXCM analyst advice on shorting EU

where is EU heading next?